Week 7

Overview #

This week, we will cover the following topics:

• End of Module 2 (Poisson decomposition, and $(a,b)$ family)
• Data analysis and descriptive statistics (Module 3): how do get a good sense of the properties of a data set, either graphically or numerically?
• Selected parametric claim size distributions (Module 3): what are good potential candidates for a describing the data likelihood profile with a parametric function?
• Fitting of distributions (Module 3): How do we then go about fitting the parameters to a given data set?

See also detailed learning outcomes 1.1.1 and 1.1.5 of the CS2 syllabus here.

Module 2: Collecture Risk Modelling #

Read: Module 2: Collective Risk Modelling SLIDES

annotated slides (UG) | annotated slides (PG)

Watch: refer to your lecture recording under “Lecture Capture” ( UG/ PG). This is where annotated slides will be made available, too.

Module 3: #

Read: Module 3 SLIDES

annotated slides (UG) | annotated slides (PG)

Watch: refer to your lecture recording under “Lecture Capture” ( UG/ PG). This is where annotated slides will be made available, too.

Additional preparation and resources #

Mandatory #

1. Chapter 2.1 and 2.2 of Wuthrich (2023) (for Module 2)
2. Chapter 3.1 and 3.2 of Wuthrich (2023) (for Module 3)

Optional #

1. Chapter 12 of Bowers et al. (1997) (free download available from Readings Online)

Tutorials #

Note that a full list of exercises is available here. Please let us know of any mistake or required update on Ed.

Pre-Tutorial work #

Please study those questions before the tutorial.

Pre-Tutorial exercises are available in the Pre-Tutorial book, which already includes solutions. It is recommended to attempt the questions before looking at the solutions

Tutorial materials #

Some questions have been especially selected for the tutorials. Students should review and attempt those questions prior to their scheduled tutorial, after they complete the pre-tutorial work.

The Tutorial book includes all questions for the whole semester already, but solutions will only be added sequentially at the end of each week, as we work our way through the set.

Note that solutions will be gradually added to that same document. Hence it is not recommended to print it, as it will regularly change (typos will also dynamically be corrected).

This week #

This week, we will start Module 3 - the scope will be clarified on Ed after the lectures.

Next weeks (week 8 and 9) #

Next week, there are no tutorials (ANZAC Day) and it is the week of the mid-semester exam.

On the following week we will continue Module 3.

Additional questions #

The “additional questions” are here for reinforcement or revision, but are not the main focus of the tutorials. Solutions for those exercises are already available.

Preparation for assessment #

Mid-semester (15%) and final (60%) exams #

• Finalise your summaries of Modules 7–10

Note that all of Modules 7 to 10 are in scope for the mid-semester exam; that includes tutorials of week 5.

You should have been preparing for the mid-semester exam by consolidating your summaries over the Easter break, and looked at past CS2 exams (look for questions classified as “TS”); refer to the mappings available on the website here.

• Finalise your summary of Module 2

Assignment (25%) #

• We will start marking!

References #